CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-10-03T05:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-10-03T05:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41585/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the east in STEREO A COR2, SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and faintly in GOES CCOR-1 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely related to an M1.5 flare from Active Region 14236 (N14W12) starting around 2025-10-03T05:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Post eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2025-10-03T06:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 171 and 195 imagery. Arrival signature at 2025-10-06T06:35Z generally characterized by slight increase in total magnetic field strength from 4 to 6 nT and stabilizing field components with time/apparent flux rope signature, as well as smoothing in density, velocity, and temperature data.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-06T06:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-06T15:50Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 32.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: -10.37 hour(s)
Difference: -9.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-10-06T16:57Z
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